Avaliação do impacto econômico de médio prazo para os municípios atingidos pelo desastre de Mariana-MG

Abstract

In November 2015, the Fundão Dam, located in the municipality of Mariana, in Minas Gerais, Brazil, collapsed. This disaster took on enormous proportions, and in relation to the damage caused to the affected populations, the Mariana disaster was considered the biggest technological disaster in the history of Brazil. To analyze the medium-term economic recovery (from 2016 to 2018) of the municipalities affected by the disaster, models of canonical differences in differences and with dynamic effects were estimated for two groups of economic variables: municipal GDP and the sectoral added values and indicators agricultural value of animal production, harvested area and value of crop production, which corresponds to the sum of production value of temporary and permanent crops. As a control group, all municipalities belonging to the states of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, which were not affected by the disaster, were used. In turn, the treatment group is formed by the municipalities directly and indirectly affected by the disaster. The main results of the canonical models pointed to significant losses for the municipal GDP, for the added value of the industry and for the value of the production of crops and harvested area. The dynamic models showed losses for the affected municipalities in terms of Municipal GDP, added value of industry and services, but with recovery in the medium term. The value of animal production also showed losses in the years 2016 and 2017, with a recovery already in the year 2018. The estimates with dynamic effects for the value of crop production also indicated losses of the municipalities affected in the year 2016, but there is a recovery trajectory starting in 2017 and extending to 2018