Análise da correlação entre índices de controle vetorial e coeficientes de incidência de dengue no município de Anchieta, Espírito Santo, Brasil, 2009 a 2011

Abstract

Introduction: Dengue is one of the most widespread viral diseases transmitted by mosquitoes with increasing speed of propagation. This study aims to analyze the correlation between indices of vector control and incidence rates of dengue in the municipality of Anchieta, Espírito Santo, Brazil, from 2009 to 2011. Material and Methods: Observational study based on ecological data from reported cases of dengue, buildings infestation index (IIP) and percentage of pending inspection of buildings. It was used the Spearman correlation test for correlation analysis and the Poisson method for regression. The level of significance was set at 5%. Results There was a positive correlation between the indices of building infestation and the incidence rate of dengue in the city of Anchieta when such variables were incorporated to the Poisson regression model, despite of the presence of a residue that was correlated with the size of the human population (r = 0.643 and p < 0.05) on each locality. There was a correlation between the percentage of pending inspection of buildings and the cumulative incidence rate of dengue in the city of Anchieta, both alone (r = 0.486 and p < 0.001) and when incorporated to the Poisson regression model. In the regression analysis, the increase of one unit in the IIP would increase the incidence of the disease by 39%. Conclusion: It was found a correlation between indices of building infestation by Aedes aegypti and percentage of pending inspection of buildings in the municipality of Anchieta. It is concluded that the larger the population size, the smaller should be the values of infestation that can influence the incidence of dengue. The relationship between the number of mosquito vectors and the number of cases is subjected to the interference of variables such as human susceptibility and opportunity for blood meal and this ratio increases with increasing population size.