Diversificação e segurança da matriz elétrica brasileira baseada em recursos renováveis em função de custos e demanda

Abstract

Electric energy is a common good necessary for the development of society, as all technology depends on its use. In this context, two important parameters allow analyzing the electric power generation sector: safety and diversity. Safety measures the system's ability to meet demand while diversity studies the participation of different fuel sources in total generation. These two parameters will be evaluated according to the costs involved in using the following energy sources: solar, hydraulic, wind, biomass, coal, fuel oil, diesel, natural and nuclear gas. For this evaluation, the System Dynamics (SD) technique will be used where the relationships between input parameters (generation capacity, depreciation, operating time and costs of energy sources) and output (safety and diversity) are related through mathematical models and solved with the aid of the Vensim PLE 8.1.0 software. 20 Scenarios are proposed with two different horizons: ability to accomplish what is planned; replacement of natural gas by another source. Being quantified by the total cost of energy generation as well as security and diversity of the system in order to compare each scenario. For the replacement scenarios are proposed in which each of the renewable sources (solar, wind, hydroelectric, biomass) absorb the increase in the capacity of natural gas. The results of the model show that it is possible to maintain near or even better levels of safety with lower costs in substitution scenarios, for example considering the planned growth for the sector, the scenario that substitutes gas for solar energy has a cost of BR $ 199.35 while replacing with wind energy costs BR $ 140.27 less than expected. The main contribution of the work was to implement a computational tool to aid decision making on the issue of increasing the use of thermoelectric plants.