Análise ponderada de índices de desempenho no sistema elétrico do estado do Espírito Santo considerando a expansão da geração de energia através de fontes intermitentes

Abstract

This work presents an analysis of Espírito Santo’s electrical system’s operation when an expansion to the generation park is suggested by using wind and solar sources, considering these sources’ intermittency by forecasting the maximum generation of each one of the power plants suggested. The analysis is done by the solution of an optimization problem whose objective is to minimize the values of different electrical system performance indexes in a weighted sum. First, the viability of wind and solar sources in the state of Espírito Santo is presented, then the optimization problem is explained together with the chosen indexes: active power losses, cost of active power generation, static voltage stability index, and voltage profile index. Solar and wind power generation calculus are presented, and then Markov Chains together with Monte Carlo Simulations were used to forecast the maximum active power generation of each generator. These values are inserted in system data of the optimization problem that aims to minimize a weighted sum of the presented indexes. Different optimization problems are solved so that the best solution is chosen. The final solution had a reduction in its active power losses of 89% when compared to the base case. It also presented a reduction of 61% of the voltage profile index and also showed reduction to the cost and stability index.