Exportação e crescimento econômico : uma análise de cointegração para a economia brasileira, 1995-2007

Abstract

The present dissertation considers to analyze the applicability of the model of export-led-growth for the Brazilian case in the period of 1995-2007. The model demonstrates that Brazil has obtained bigger resulted in terms of growth of the product, from 1995. The analyses show to a positive relation between volume of exportations and economic growth. Although other factors also are decisive to determine the level of expansion of the product of a country, as investment, added demand, level of income, total productivity of the factors and level of prices; the model of export-led, as developed by Thirlwall (1979) indicates that countries that export more, have bigger taxes of growth in the long stated period. In this direction, the model analyzed in this work is possible on the basis of to explain the behavior of the tax of growth of the GIP of Brazil for the next periods.