Instituições orçamentárias e seus impactos sobre o resultado fiscal dos estados brasileiros

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to verify the impact that subnational budget institutions have on the fiscal results of these entities. To this end, these institutions were measured using the composite index proposed by Alesina et al. (1999), using data from the budget rules of the 26 Brazilian states plus the Federal District, from 1995 to 2016. The Partially Ordered Set Theory (POSET) was used as an alternative approach to the indices of Alesina et al (1999), as a way of verifying the robustness of the results. To achieve the objective of the study, the Generalized Method of Moments System (GMM-Sys) was applied to estimate the function of fiscal reaction. The dependent variable was the primary state result in relation to GDP, and the explanatory variable was the budget index. The economic control variables were the dependent variable lagged one period, the public debt and the output gap (in ratios of the GDP), also lagged one period. The results obtained by the Alesina et al. (1999), as well as the alternative POSET method, indicated that budget institutions positively affect the budget results of the states. From this result, it is possible to say that the formal rules around the process of preparing, approving and executing the budget, (i) can be used to explain part of the state fiscal deficit, (ii) can serve as a means of making policy less discretionary and more disciplined fiscal system and (iii) as an explanatory factor between the differences in the fiscal positions of the states