Os determinantes da inflação na República Democrática do Congo: um estudo econométrico (2005-2015)

Abstract

In many emerging and underdeveloped countries supply shocks have proven to be the major cause of inflation since the 2000s. Changes in commodity prices and the nominal exchange rate have proved to be relevant for understanding the dynamics of inflation. Based on this problem, this paper aims to analyze the determinants of inflation between January 2005 and December 2015 by using the vector autoregressive model (VAR). With impulse response functions (FRis) and the decomposition of the prediction error variance, it is possible to verify that inflation suffers with commodity price shocks. However, the exchange rate passthrough is the main cause of inflation, since it is statistically significant, and the interest rate is an insignificant instrument for fighting inflation