Fragilidade financeira externa : uma análise da economia brasileira no período 1994-2012

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the evolution of the external financial fragility of the Brazilian economy in the period between 1994 and 2012. In order to achieve this, it was initially set up a presentation of the Financial Instability Hypothesis, by Hyman P. Minsky. Furthermore, the analytical structure of the above mentioned author was applied to the open economies. Thereby, the study tool used to analyze the country’s capacity to face external shocks became the Financial Fragility Index, which was first developed by Paula e Alves (1999) and based on the Brazilian balance of payments. This index and other external solvency indicators were the basis for the realization of the economic analysis, together with the typology of the features of the financial positions towards the external sector in Brazil. It is concluded that although the Brazilian economy had an improvement in external vulnerability indicators, it is necessary to implement policies aiming to expand the production capacity and the competitiveness of domestic industry.