Efeitos da implementação de políticas públicas na expectativa de produção de energia em aterros sanitários brasileiros

Abstract

Electricity generation from landfill gas (LFG) can be influenced by different factors, such as changes in the composition and amount of generated MSW (municipal solid waste). These changes can be triggered by public policies that encourage the reduction and recycling of waste and, consequently, landfill diversions. As a result, the main goals of this work were: to evaluate the effects of applying public policies from the perspective of the power generation potential in landfills and respective economic viability. Therefore, a bibliometric survey was carried out to design political scenarios of MSW reduction and diversion of dry and wet waste from landfills. Then, a system dynamics model was created to simulate these scenarios and, with the obtained outputs, the impact on the economic viability of the LFG utilization was assessed. The bibliometric review has indicated deficiencies in the implementation of policies aimed at preventing MSW generation and the management of its organic fraction. Moreover, specifically in Brazil, the implementation of policies is more challenging compared to developed countries and also, the treatment of organic waste needs more incentive, since it is still incipient. The developed model behaved properly and, through simulation, it was possible to verify that diverting only dry materials from landfills increases LFG generation, hence electricity generation. However, only diverting organic waste will compromise electricity production. Thus, the highest electricity generation potentials were obtained from the scenarios with lower deviation of biodegradable waste. Conversely, the economic viability results indicate that none of the scenarios is viable, except when additional revenues from the sale of carbon credits are considered. However, economic viability could be achieved through government incentives, such as: an increase in the energy sales fare; discounts in the initial investment phase, through tax relief on machinery, equipment, raw materials, and imports; subsidized investment costs.