Determinantes para identificação de fraude de simulação em empresas sujeitas ao ICMS

Abstract

This dissertation was guided by the following research problem: what are the determinants that are related to the likelihood of simulation fraud in taxpayers subject to the taxation of the Tax on Operations related to the Circulation of Goods and Services Provision of Interstate and Intermunicipal Transport and Communication (ICMS)? The objective is to support the construction of a statistical model to help the detection of these frauds in the registration of the Secretariat of Finance of the State of Espírito Santo (SEFAZ-ES). It is observed that there is a need to adopt scientific mechanisms to subsidize the fight against this type of harmful action to tax collection and to the market, as a way to minimize the costs of monitoring taxpayers practiced by tax administrations, which can be understood as parts of an agency relationship. The information asymmetry in this relationship contributes to the dissemination of adverse selection of companies in the market, in which organizations that evade and defraud the tax legislation survive, while those that comply are harmed or simply banned by the phenomenon of unfair competition. The research method adopted is the logistic regression technique, which was supported by the SEFAZ-ES database for the period from 2015 to 2019, whose analyzes gave rise to the proposal of four statistical models, constituted in the form of a technical product of search. The work is in line with Research Line 1 - Policy, planning and governance. The main results achieved were: existence of company profiles in which the likelihood of fraud is greater, and efforts to monitor those with specific attributes can be directed; the main attributes associated with fraud and simulation were found: small social capital; taxpayers with limited liability legal form; small number of partners; accountants already identified in fraud; among others. Still, the short time of activity of these organizations also proved to be decisive, showing that these companies have a short period of use for the beneficiaries of frauds, therefore, it is necessary to have a quick intervention by the inspection in the scope of tax administration